The consequences of a Biden Presidency for Asia

The first thing that will probably occur after January 20, 2021, when President Biden is sworn in is that US foreign policy will become more predictable than it has been during the last four years – something that will be met with a sigh of relief not just in Asia but throughout much of the world. This presupposes that the inauguration will actually go ahead because President Trump and a large section of the Republican Party are clearly doing their best to destroy the country with almost completely baseless accusations that the Presidential election was rigged – claims for which zero evidence has so far been supplied.
On the assumption that sanity will prevail, the Secretaries of State and Defense are likely to be experienced hands – Susan Rice is one of several being considered for the former role – and President-elect Biden is himself a person of great experience in Government. The capricious policies of President Trump, which gave the impression of often being motivated by personal views and grievances – will be replaced by a more calculated approach designed to further the security and economic interests of the US and its regional allies. The isolationist and unilateralist ‘America First’ era will fade, the tariff wars will be scaled back, and traditional alliances and international treaties – starting with the Paris climate change accords – will be front and centre.

However, achieving these somewhat Utopian goals will be neither fast nor easy. The first obstacle – alluded to above – is that President Trump might simply refuse to go and supported by a large number of Republican enablers could continue to deny the legitimacy of the election result. Logically, this should have come to an end by now but clearly this is not the case. The next key date will be the meeting of the Electoral College in mid-December, which should confirm that Joe Biden is the duly elected President of the United States – but so turbulent and destructive have been the Trump years that even this cannot be taken for granted.
The Democrats have indicated their preference to return to a normal way of constructing an administration – namely for the Senate to hold hearings into key appointments and approve or reject them. While this is a commendable aim, with the Republicans continuing to control the Senate – a January runoff in Georgia for two seats notwithstanding – there is the very real possibility that they will continue their stance of obstructing everything that the new President tries to do. The only way around this will be for Biden to do what so enraged the Democrats when Trump did the same thing – make all of the positions acting ones rather than permanent so as to bypass the Senate completely.
If the Senate continues its obstructionist approach – at the moment there are more than 600 items of Democrat legislation sitting there in limbo, irrespective of their merits – President Biden also will have no choice but to resort to Executive Orders to try and get as much done as possible. He will also have a big job ahead trying to repopulate the State Department with suitably qualified staff rather than leaving hundreds of positions vacant. This will also apply to numerous Ambassadorships, which Trump often filled with cronies and political hacks – or just left them vacant.

While the medium to long term outlook is therefore promising, there are at least two short term security dangers for the Asia Pacific. In this volatile and highly unstable lead up to the Electoral College decision – which in this environment cannot be taken for granted, as horrifying as that sounds – either China or North Korea might be tempted to see what they can get away with.
In the case of China, it might mean an overtly aggressive move towards Taiwan such as more airspace and maritime intrusions, or a major cyber attack, or in the most extreme of cases a landing on an uninhabited island claimed by Taipei just to see what the US reaction would be. China could try the same thing with Japan – though in that case it is highly likely that Tokyo would push back hard, with or without the support of the US.
The opaque North Korean regime might decide to provoke the US in this time of rare political turmoil by staging the test of a nuclear weapon or launching a missile with intercontinental range. Another possibility would be a limited military strike on South Korea, perhaps involving a US base or ship in the surrounding waters.
While a low probability, unfortunately none of these possibilities can be completely ruled out. China has been acting very aggressively during the last few months – and President Xi might see this as an opportunity to show the world of China’s growing power. While North Korea has avoided recent provocations that can change in an instant. With President Trump running the US until noon on January 20 anything could happen – from complete paralysis to some sort of ghastly overreaction. The next 11 weeks will be a nervous time for the region.
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