The G-7 and NATO push back against China
The view from Beijing is slightly different, with the narrative that the G-7 and to a lesser extent NATO are continuing a campaign of persecuting China. While China can continue to question the motives of the West following the summits of the last fortnight, what is beyond doubt is that an increasing number of countries are starting to resist perceived aggression in domains such as commerce, foreign policy, cyber security and hard power force projection. The big question is whether these strengthening positions make armed conflict more or less likely.
The problem for Beijing is that President Xi’s preferred “wolf warrior” style of diplomacy – an in your face, we couldn’t care less about what you say – coupled with actions during the last decade is leaving China relatively friendless on the international stage. An obvious exception to this is Russia among nations with serious military clout – but that country is a shadow of its former self when it was the heart and soul of the USSR 30 years ago. The other nations that could be placed in the pro-China camp are a collection of outcasts, such as Iran, or much of sub-Saharan Africa, whose economies are closely coupled with that of their gigantic trading partner.
The current more assertive attitude towards China is being led by the new Biden administration, which has made it clear that a tougher line is needed – and that was reflected at the G-7 meeting. For the moment, several European powers are hedging their bets with France and Germany hoping that it is still possible to find some middle ground. NATO is in a similar position and even though Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg mentioned China in a communique as a possible competitor for the time it remains unclear if all 24 member countries share identical views. However, it is noteworthy that even some of Europe’s smaller countries are getting sick and tired of Beijing’s belligerence: https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/lithuanias-outreach-to-taiwan-is-another-blow-to-chinas-europe-diplomacy/
China has an absolute right to self-defence – and in addition many actions that have taken place can be seen as a natural rebalancing of the international order to better reflect economic and therefore military strength. China also suffered from a 150 year period of humiliation at the hands of the West and Japan that has only recently concluded. Having said that, in attempting some sort of rebalance, Beijing might have gone too far and misread the overall international situation.
The first major move at pushing the boundaries was the claim to ownership of the South China Sea and the island-building campaign that accompanied it. The US in particular was distracted by events in the Middle East, firstly with Afghanistan but secondly and more importantly with the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Countries in the region most directly effected by China’s territorial claims – Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia – were too small and isolated to risk a serious and sustained military conflict. Perhaps the lack of an international response resulted in further miscalculations – the treatment of the Uighurs, suppression of democracy in Hong Kong and repeated displays of military aggression against Taiwan.
Immediately prior to the public spasms of rage regarding the outcome of the G-7 and NATO meetings, President Xi appeared to make a sharp U-turn in the overall tone of diplomatic rhetoric, telling senior Communist Party members on June 2 that China needed to be seen as more lovable to cultivate more friends on the international scene. It is to be hoped that in the coming months Beijing will again try and steer a course far less aggressive and threatening than that of the last five years in particular. Even a country as large, powerful and historically important as China might realise that having the entire world against you is not a productive place to be.
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